5/18 by Connie Howell
The expected CME hasn’t arrived yet, but NOAA’s currently anticipating it’ll hit Earth sometime this evening, and they still anticipate it’ll briefly take us into Geomagnetic Storms. They’re currently providing a 30% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America, and 60% chance of HP = 6 (G2) in the northern U.S… I spent a lot of time “hmmm”ing this evening, because there’s some ambiguity in NOAA’s and the UK’s MetOffice’s forecasts for 5/20-5/21 regarding incoming CMEs and I couldn’t find any solid clarification on a couple other websites… Sparing y’all the details – we may, or may not, have additional CME Sideswipes on 5/20-5/21 and we may, or may not, have brief HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms on 5/20. Sorry I can’t offer more specific info! 
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Solar Flares were calm today, staying mainly in the B Class range. We’ve got 4 new Sun Spots incoming, all categorized as capable of B Class Solar Flares atm – we’ll see if that holds as they transverse the Sun…. We’ve got one Sun Spot entering its Farewell Volley position and while it’s rated as capable of B Class Solar Flares, it’ll likely toss a few M Class Solar Flares before we’re out of range.
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We’ve been sitting in a CH HSS all day today, as evidenced by the “Variable between” Solar Wind Density and Solar Wind Speed numbers. NOAA’s anticipating the incoming CME will keep us in the >500 km/sec range for the next few days.
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Electron Saturation is responding to the CH HSS by staying above its Alert Threshold, and even crossing into the >10K pfu range for several hours during the day. The incoming CME(s?) should drop it back down below its Alert Threshold by 5/20. Proton Saturation’s holding steady at Normal levels.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flares Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density Variable between 0.50-7.64/cm3
Solar Wind Speed ~530 km/sec 5/17 @ 7.00p CDT, 504-588 km/sec beginning 9.38p CDT, 487-576 km/sec beginning 1.25p CDT and continuing to 6.30p CDT Post
Solar Wind Speed Averaging >500 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation >1K pfu beginning 5/16 @ 11.00a CDT and continuing to 5/18 @ 7.00p CDT Post
Electron Saturation >10K pfu 5/18 @ 12.50p – 6.10p CDT
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Warning
Electron Saturation >10K pfu Watch