5/16 from Connie Howell

I’m guessing a lot of ppl were uncomfortable today because almost every Solar feature we monitor was acting up!
.
It started with the CH HSS arriving last night and taking us up to 808 km/sec in Solar Wind Speed late last night, and causing persist Geomagnetic Storms until after noon today. Solar Wind Speed has dropped back into the 600 km/sec range, but still…
.
We had 3 M Class Solar Flares today, 2 of which came from an Earth-facing Sun Spot, both of which generated CMEs that are heading to Earth. Both CMEs are expected to arrive around noon on 5/18. We can expect more of these from this Sun Spot for about 7 more days.
.
While it looks like Geomagnetic Storms may be over for today, NOAA’s giving us a 30% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in the middle U.S., and 70% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. overnight 5/17-5/18 due to the ongoing CH HSS. Plus the 2 incoming CMEs may cause HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms around noon on 5/18.
.
The CH HSS caused Electron Saturation to cross its Alert Threshold slightly before noon today, and it’s still >1K pfu as of this post. NOAA’s saying it’ll cross its Alert Threshold each of the coming 3 days, but the chances exist that 2 incoming CMEs may drop it down below its Alert Threshold on 5/18.
.
Solar Flare Conditions
M1.9 Solar Flare 5/17 @ 11.12a CDT from Exiting Sun Spot
M1.3 Solar Flare @ 11.29a CDT from Earth-facing Sun Spot -> CME
M1.9 Solar Flare @ 12.42p CDT from Earth-facing Sun Spot -> CME
M Class Solar Flare Watch
.
Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 5+ (G1) Geomagnetic Storms 5/15 @ 2.00p-11.00p CDT, 5/16 @ 1.00a-2.00a CDT, 5.00a-6.00a CDT, noon – 1.00p CDT
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms 5/15 @ 5.00p-9.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until 5/17 @ 4.00a CDT – may be extended
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm Watch Expired
.
Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <6.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed ~720 km/sec 5/15 @ 7.00p CDT, Peaked 808 km/sec @ 10.33p CDT, Variable between 605-740 km/sec beginning 10.48p CDT, ~640 km/sec beginning 5/16 @ 5.51a CDT, Variable between 626-715 km/sec beginning 9.18a CDT, ~630 km/sec beginning 6.48p CDT and continuing to 9.00p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed >600 km/sec Warning
.
Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation >1K pfu beginning 5/16 @ 11.00a CDT and continuing to 9.00p CDT Post
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Warning
.