5/17 from Connie Howell

NOAA’s providing a 30% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in the middle U.S., and 60% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. on 5/18-5/19. They expect a CME to arrive around noon on 5/18, causing that day’s Geomagnetic Storms and a 2nd CME to arrive around midnight 5/18-5/19, causing 5/19’s Geomagnetic Storms. Once we get past these, NOAA’s expecting we’ll quickly return to HP < 3.0 conditions. . We had 1 M Class Solar Flare from an exiting Sun Spot that’s no longer visible from our perspective. NOAA’s not reporting any incoming CMEs today, but they do expect more M Class Solar Flares over the next few days. . Solar Wind Speed dropped to less uncomfortable conditions today but mainly staying in the >500 km/sec range. It looks like NOAA’s expecting the incoming CMEs to keep Solar Wind Speeds in that range for the next couple days…
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Electron Saturation crossed the >10K pfu mark today for several hours. It’s currently dropped to >1K pfu for overnight. It’ll likely stay above its Alert Threshold until the 1st CME arrives tomorrow, then it should drop below its Alert Threshold. Proton Saturation got a little agitated today, but is holding at Normal levels.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.4 Solar Flare 5/16 @ 10.39p CDT from Exiting Sun Spot
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <6.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed ~630 km/sec 5/17 @ 7.00p CDT, Variable between 601-720 km/sec beginning 10.51p CDT, ~590 km/sec beginning 5/17 @ 12.36p CDT, Variable between 531-587 km/sec beginning 2.30p CDT, ~530 km/sec beginning 6.30p CDT and continuing to 8.30p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation >1K pfu beginning 5/16 @ 11.00a CDT and continuing to 5/17 @ 8.30p CDT Post
Electron Saturation >10K pfu 5/17 @ 12.10pp – 6.20p CDT
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Warning
Electron Saturation >10K pfu Watch