C6.7 Flare

A long-duration C6.7 flare from AR 4465 has sent a coronal mass ejection partially directed at Earth. it’s not squarely aimed at Earth, but both NASA and NOAA think we will get clipped. Coinciding with the onset of a high-speed stream, this weekend could be interesting.

Impact according to NASA M2M: 3 UT on June 13 (Friday night). Good setup for North American chasers, a little late for Europe. All models have uncertainty at minimum +/- 7 hr, potentially more for this event.

Impact according to NOAA SWPC: 5 UT on June 13 (also Friday night).

Impact according to HUXt: 13 UT on June 13; ~45% confidence with high uncertainty.

Note that these CME models are forecasting a glancing blow. These are notorious for being HIGH UNCERTAINTY forecasts!! We just saw more promising CMEs deliver total duds of events the last week, so don’t get your expectations up for this solar storm.

We will just have to see what happens over the next 24-72 hours with this CME as well as the coronal hole hopefully taking shape to deliver geomagnetic storming and chances for mid-latitude auroral visibility Friday and Saturday nights.

I have no clue if we will see a geomagnetic storm watch for this CME. I expect maybe a G1-G2, so if we do see a G2, I will be sending an aurora alert with a summary of this event+others to watch for this weekend. Subscribe: http://go.theauroraguy.com/alerts