April 15, 2026

4/15 p Post by Connie Howell
We’ve got a few things to discuss this evening:
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First, today was calm across all measures, except Electron Saturation, and we finally got into the 300 km/sec range with Solar Wind Speeds. Electron Saturation is still hovering around its Alert Threshold. Good News – tomorrow and most of 4/17 should look a lot like today.
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Not So Good News – Beginning mid-evening on 4/17 SDO satellite shows a large incoming Coronal Hole and NOAA say that Coronal Hole’s CH HSS will rather abruptly take us into Geomagnetic Storming overnight on 4/17 into 4/18. NOAA’s giving middle N. America a 25% chance of reaching HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms, and 35-40% chance of reaching HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm levels. The northern states in N. America will likely see HP = 7 (G3) Geomagnetic Storm levels during the same timeframe since NOAA’s providing an 80-85% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms levels.
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NOAA’s estimating the CH HSS will take the Solar Winds that buffet our Earth’s magnetosphere back into the 600 km/sec range.
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Electron Saturation will likely continue hovering around its Alert Threshold for the several days, and may get into the >10K pfu range on 4/18.
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We’ve also got an incoming Sun Spot that’s quickly grown in power, not size, but NOAA’s expecting it to start generating M Class Solar Flares soon.
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Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <9.0/cm3 All Day
Solar Wind Speed between 329-378 km/sec All Day
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu beginning 4/12 @ 7.30a CDT and continuing to 4/15 @ 7.00p CDT Post
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu Warning