How late is our CME?

How late is our CME? Not that late, actually! The official forecast was always for the solar storm to impact close to sunrise for North American chasers. The yellow line is the current time. We are only three hours behind schedule and within the margin of error for the official model.

According to STEREO-A Heliospheric Imager data, we may still see a glancing or falnking blow from this storm sometime later today. Our chances for widespread aurora have shifted from Sunday night –> Monday night and maybe expectations of overall strength should be softened from G3 –> G2.

Of course, nothing could happen. This is space weather, after all! My goal is just to provide real-time updates for these events since that is where a lot of accounts fall short–they track the hype of the event, not the event itself and how it eventually unfolds.

Appreciate you all following along with these updates, and even if literally nothing happens, you can’t blame anyone. Space weather is just really, really hard to forecast, and if this is your first time following one of these storms from “Sun to (hopefully) mud,” then welcome! This is just what happens —Vincent Ledvina