4/9 Solar Activity

4/9 p Post by Connie Howell: Sun Spot 4409 tossed a parting shot at Earth this morning from the fringes of the Sun. It’ll probably be able to do that for 2 more days, but otherwise we’ve only got 3 Sun Spots facing Earth atm and we’re mainly sitting in B Class Solar Flares.
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We had calm Geomagnetics today, but we’ve got 2 CH HSS arriving any time now. Geomagnetic Storms are expected around midnight tonight, tomorrow night, and possible overnight 4/11-4/12. NOAA’s providing a 25% chance of Geomagnetic Storms in middle U.S. tonight, 30% chance tomorrow night, and 10% chance overnight 4-11-4/12. They’re saying the northern U.S. has a 65% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms tonight and tomorrow night, but that’ll drop down to 40% overnight 4/11-4/12.
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Solar Wind Speed finally fell below 400 km/sec about noon yesterday, and averaged a calm 360 km/sec today. NOAA’s expecting the imminent arrival of the CH HSS will take us back to 500+ km/sec by 4/11.
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Electron Saturation *finally* dropped below its Alert Threshold today. It should stay there for the next 2 days, but is likely to rise to >1K pfu on 4/12 as the new CH HSSes deposit electrons into our atmosphere. Proton Saturation’s staying at Normal levels at Solar Flares decrease.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.0 Solar Flare 4/9 @ 3.45a CDT from 4409
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.6 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <10.00/cm3 Solar Wind Speed ~370 km/sec 4/8 @ 7.00p CDT, 411 km/sec 4/9 @ 12.35a CDT, ~370 km/sec beginning 12.55a CDT, Peaked 423 km/sec @ 6.02a CDT, Variable between 347-393 km/sec beginning 6.59a CDT, ~360 km/sec beginning 8.30a CDT, ~412 km/sec beginning 9.42p CDT and continuing to 10.30p CDT Post . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation ~/>1K pfu beginning 4/3 @ 3.20a CDT and ending 4/9 @ 4.45p CDT – finally!
Electron Saturation ~10K pfu from 4/9 @ 9.15a-2.00p CDT
Proton Saturation Moderate