5/1 by Connie Howell


It was a rather jostling day, but calmer than yesterday, for what that’s worth…
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The current CH HSS arrived yesterday around noon, taking our Solar Wind Speeds back into the 400 km/sec range all day today. It also caused brief HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms last night, but our HP Index settled down quite a bit today and we currently have no Geomagnetic Storm Watches in effect. That’ll change in 3 days, but in the meantime…
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While we have 9 Sun Spots visible, all of them have lost strength over the past 2 days, and we’ve been sitting in C Class Solar Flares. NOAA’s providing a 40% chance of M Class Solar Flares because we’ve got 2 Sun Spots in their Farewell Volley positions.
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The incoming CH HSS may cause brief Geomagnetic Storms on 5/3 when it arrives, but it’s small, and far south on the Sun, so I don’t think they’ll last very long if it does. Our Solar Wind Speeds will likely stay in the 400 km/sec range tomorrow, and drop down into the 300 km/sec on 5/2, before going back into the 400 km/sec range on 5/3.
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Electron Saturation’s been staying below its Alert Threshold for several days! It’ll probably cross its Alert Threshold over each of the coming 2 days, drop below its Alert Threshold on 5/3, then rise above it again on 5/4. Proton Saturation’s holding steady at Normal level and with only C Class Solar Flares, it’ll probably stay there each of the coming 3 days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) 4/30 @ 5.00p-7.00p CDT & 11.00p – midnight CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch Expired
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <6.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed ~500 km/sec 4/30 @ 7.00p CDT, Variable between 415-559 km/sec beginning 9.37p CDT, Variable between 401-487 km/sec beginning 5/1 @ 7.52a CDT and continuing to 6.30p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Watch