10/8 Recap


Electron Saturation dropped to Moderate levels @ 8.40p CDT. 🙂

The past 2 days have been mainly quiet after Solar Wind Speed dropped below 400 km/sec 10/6 @ 8.37p CDT. Electron Saturation’s been a continuing annoyance, crossing above the 10K pfu line during the day, but it looks like it might finally drop back to Moderate levels this evening.
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The next 3 days are going to be a bit of a jumbled mess with 4 CMEs due in over each of the next 3 days. Two are due tomorrow, they’re expected to raise Solar Wind Speed above 500 km/sec and to cause up to HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms beginning late evening CDT tomorrow until about noon CDT on 10/10. In the evening on 10/10 a third, less impactful CME is expected. It’s not supposed to cause any Geomagnetic Storms, but a 3rd CME is due late on 10/11 and it’s expected to cause up to HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms. The Good News about the 3rd and 4th CMEs is they’re moving more slowly than the first two CMEs, and Solar Wind Speeds expected to drop into the 400 km/sec range on 10/10 and 10/11.
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Solar Flares were sporadic today, but we did have 1 M Class Solar Flare from a Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Line that’s rated for X-Class Solar Flares. I expect we’ll see more of these from that Sun Spot over the next week before it’s out of Earth’s range. We also have a small, inactive Sun Spot in its Farewell Volley position, so we can’t count that one out for generating an M Class Solar Flare for at least 3 more days.
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The incoming CMEs will keep Electron Saturation below its Alert Threshold for the next 3 days, but we’ve got a CH HSS due on 10/12 that’ll likely raise Electron Saturation above its Alert Threshold again on 10/13. Proton Saturation’s holding at Normal levels, but getting agitated by M Class Solar Flares. NOAA’s fairly confident Proton Saturation will stay below its Alert Threshold each of the coming 3 days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M6.8 Solar Flare 10/8 @ 10.48a CDT
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <6.0/cm3 Solar Wind Speed Averaged 360 km/sec Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation >Alert Threshold (1K pfu) beginning 10/5 @ 11.00a CDT and continuing to 10/8 @ 8.30p CDT Post
Electron Saturation ~10K pfu 10/8 @ 10.00a-5.00p CDT
Proton Saturation Moderate
Connie Howell