5/22: Connie Howell

We had an M Class Solar Flare today from the weaker of 2 Sun Spots in their Farewell Volley positions. We can probably expect an M Class Solar Flare from one of those 2 Sun Spots almost daily over the next week.
.
The current CH HSS arrived yesterday evening, taking our Solar Wind Speeds briefly as high as 526 km/sec, but the range has been mainly in the 400 km/sec range until this morning, when our Solar Wind Speeds dropped into the 300 km/sec range. Most of the forecasts I’m looking at indicate we should have Solar Wind Speeds <400 km/sec each of the coming 3 days. . There was no Geomagnetic Storming with this CH HSS, but we did reach HP = 3.0 briefly. Otherwise, we averaged HP = 1.3. All forecasts agree we should have Geomagnetic Calm each of the coming 3 days. . Electron Saturation has dropped down below its Alert Threshold for a couple hours during evening since the CME came through three days ago, but I doubt those few hours are sufficient to provide any relief, so we’ll keep that day tally running as an ongoing Warning. With this new CH HSS, we can expect Electron Saturation to continue at uncomfortable for 3-4 days. . Proton Saturation’s agitated from today’s almost 1 hour long M Class Solar Flare, but it’s still holding steady at Normal levels. As long as we’re only getting 1 M Class Solar Flare every couple days, this measure should stay below its Alert Threshold. . Solar Flare Conditions ~1 hour long M2.3 Solar Flare began 5/22 @ 5.03a CDT, Peaked 5.29a CDT, Ended 6.01a CDT from Exiting Sun Spot -> No CME
M Class Solar Flare Watch
.
Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.0 Average
.
Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density Variable between 0.69-130.27/cm3 5/21 @ 7.00p CDT, < 3.0/cm3 beginning 5/22 @ 4.53a CDT Solar Wind Speed Variable between 335-526 km/sec 5/21 @ 7.00p CDT, ~370 km/sec beginning 5/22 @ 4.53a CDT, Low 344 km/sec @ 11.07a CDT, ~360 km/sec beginning 5.32p CDT and continuing to 7.00p CDT Post . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation ~/>1K pfu beginning 5/16 @ 11.00a CDT to 5/22 @ 7.30p CDT Post
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation ~/>1K pfu Warning x6 days