7/21 Recap
There have been a couple of changes over the last 24 hours, so let’s do this report based on those changes:
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We’ve still got a large, strong Sun Spot facing Earth and tossing M Class Solar Flares – today it only tossed one M Class Solar Flare. Yesterday and today it grew westward and cut the adjacent Coronal Hole in half. This may prove to be helpful to us since 1) the Sun Spot’s sitting on the Sun’s Equator, so the CH HSS that was in that location is gone and 2) that slightly drops the expected Solar Wind Speeds from >700 km/sec to >600 km/sec – I’m not sure how big a difference that’s gonna make for anything (or anyone)…
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We still have a Geomagnetic Storm incoming with the CH HSS. NOAA’s expecting it to arrive about midnight tonight and they’re providing a 30% chance of HP = 5 (G1) in middle North America and a 70% chance of HP = 6 (G2) in the northern U.S. states. What’s new is we also have a CME coming in tomorrow night. It’s not expected to cause any Geomagnetic Storms, but it is expected to prolong our time with Solar Wind Speeds >600 km/sec.
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Electron Saturation dropped below its Alert Threshold today, but may rise above it briefly tomorrow before the CME arrives. Proton Saturation is agitated, but staying at Normal levels.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.9 Solar Flare 7/21 @ 12.25p CDT
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.3 Average
HP = 5+ (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density<9.0/cm3 7/20 @ 7.00p CDT, >9.0/cm3 7/22 @ 12.22a CDT, Peaked 28.3/cm3 @ 6.30a CDT, ~11.0/cm3 beginning 7.53a CDT and continuing to 10.30p CDT Post
Solar Wind Speed ~280 km/sec 7/21 @ 7.00p CDT, ~320 km/sec beginning 7/21 @ 2.51a CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 6.33a CDT, Variable between 419-471 km/sec beginning 4.24p CDT and continuing to 10.30p CDT Post
Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Warning
Solar Wind Speed >600 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Watch
Connie Howell