8/17 Recap

Today was pretty calm across all measures, but the next 3 days look like we’ll be in and out of Geomagnetic Storms, and our Solar Wind Speeds may reach as high as 600 km/sec any of the next 3 days.
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The 8/14 CME arrived about 9.00a CDT this morning, taking Solar Wind Density to >10.0/cm3 around 4.00a CDT, Solar Wind Speed to ~400 km/sec beginning about 5.00p CDT and causing Geomagnetic jostling between HP = 1.0 to HP = 4.6 beginning 11.00a CDT. So far we’ve had a very brief stint at HP = 5 (G1) between 3.30p-4.00p CDT, more is expected overnight tonight.
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While the CME will begin to dissipated on 8/18, the CH HSS will arrive to replace it, keeping us in periodic Geomagnetic Storms overnight 8/18-8/19. NOAA’s providing a 25% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America overnight 8/18-8/19, and a 55% chance of the northern U.S. states reaching HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the same timeframe.
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Our Geomagnetics should calm down beginning early morning CDT on 8/19, but might get jostled again early morning CDT on 8/20 with at least 1 CME Sideswipe.
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We had C Class Solar Flares today mainly from 1 Exiting Sun Spot rated for C Class Solar Flares. We have 1 other Sun Spot in its Farewell Volley position, and 2 Sun Spots in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line. Only 1 of the Sun Spots in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line are classified for M Class Solar Flares. Chances for M Class Solar Flares was raised mainly due to the positioning of these 4 Sun Spots.
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Electron and Proton Saturation stayed below their Alert Thresholds today. The combination of CMEs and CH HSS should keep Electron Saturation suppressed for several days. Proton Saturation should stay below its Alert Threshold as long as we stay in C Class Solar Flares.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.3 Average until 8/1 @ 8.00a CDT, then HP = 3.0 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch – 20% chance middle N. America
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm Watch – 50% chance northern U.S. states
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density ~4.0/cm3 8/16 @ 7.00p CDT, ~10.0/cm3 beginning 8/17 @ 3.44a CDT, Peaked 17.0/cm3 @ 9.13a CDT, ~16.0/cm3 beginning 5.01p CDT
Solar Wind Speed ~300 km/sec 8/16 @ 7.00p CDT, ~340 km/sec beginning 8/17 @ 9.11a CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 5.00p CDT
Solar Wind Speed ~ 400 km/sec Warning
Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Low – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell