8/6 Recap

We had calm space weather today across all features we monitor. NOAA’s anticipating similar conditions for the next 3 days, with the exception of a possible brief period of Geomagnetic Storms 8/7 afternoon CDT. They’re currently providing a 15% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle America and a 50% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states.
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Most Solar Wind forecasts are expecting the incoming CMEs, and the small, southern CH HSS will keep us in the 400 km/sec range for the next several days. But we’ve got 2 small northern Coronal Holes that have developed since yesterday, and there are a few indications they may expand as they move into the Sun-Earth Line in the next 2-3 days. If they do expand, they could raise Solar Wind Speeds into uncomfortable ranges in 3-5 days.
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Solar Flares have dropped down into the B Class range all day today, but we’ve got 3 new, incoming Sun Spots, so we’ll see what they do.
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Electron and Proton Saturation should stay below their Alert Thresholds for the next 3 days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <2.0/cm3 8/5 @ 7.00p CDT, ~3.0/cm3 beginning 8/6 @ 2.41p CDT Solar Wind Speed ~350 km/sec 8/5 @ 7.00p CDT, ~300 km/sec beginning 8/6 @ 8.38a CDT, ~280 km/sec beginning 6/35p CDT Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell