9/15 Recap

So Good News, we missed the Geomagnetic Storms overnight last night! Not So Good News – Geomagnetic Storms are “most likely” overnight 9/16-9/17, but NOAA’s only providing 5-10% chance HP = 5 (G1) in middle N. America, and 20% chance HP = 6 (G2) in northern U.S. states, so we may not get those either. We should be through all Geomagnetic Storm Watches mid-morning on 9/17, and have calm Geomagnetics thereafter.
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Solar Wind Speed was a wild mess today! We saw everything between 328 km/sec to 774 km/sec today. It showed quite an interesting mix of CME Sideswipes and CH HSS influences. I posted that HP Index and Solar Wind chart for those who want more specific details, plus the breakdown is below in the data… We’re not likely to get much of a break in Solar Wind Speeds for a few days, the forecasts all show >500 km/sec. 😕
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More Good News – The incoming CME Sideswipes should keep Electron Saturation below its Alert Threshold for next 3 days; Proton Saturation should stay at Normal levels for the next few days; there’s no imminent threats for M Class Solar Flares at this time. 😊
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Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = Variable between 0.0-4.0, HP = 3.3 9/15 @ 9.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <6.0/cm3 9/14 @ 7.00p CDT, between 5.0-12.0/cm3 beginning 9/15 @ 5.03p CDT, Peaked 28.8/cm3 @ 7.02p CDT, 12.0/cm3 @ 9.17p CDT Solar Wind Speed ~360 km/sec 9/14 @ 7.00p CDT, Variable between 377-471 km/sec beginning 9/15 @ 4.17a CDT, Peaked 774 km/sec @ 6.53a CDT, 435 km/sec @ 7.18a CDT, 723 km/sec @ 8.02a CDT, Variable between 328-476 km/sec beginning 8.32a CDT, Peaked 769 km/sec @ 1.33p CDT, 732 km/sec @ 2.09p CDT, Variable between 389-535 km/sec beginning 2.47p CDT, ~530 km/sec beginning 6.41p CDT Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Low – Moderate
Proton Saturation Moderate 9/14 @ 7.00p CDT, Normal beginning 11.20p CDT and continuing to 9/15 @ 9.30p CDT
Connie Howell