10/3 Recap

The CME arrived last night at 8.30p CDT. It wasn’t particularly impactful, slightly raising Solar Wind Speeds above 300 km/sec, and briefly raising Solar Wind Density above 10/cm3. The HP Index responded by averaging HP ~ 2.6 until 10.00a CDT this morning. After that we averaged HP ~ 0.6.
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The CME’s influence will likely be wiped out by the incoming CH HSS that’s expected overnight tonight. It’s expected to raise Solar Wind Speeds into the 500 km/sec range and to cause Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states – there’s only a 10% chance we’ll reach HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in the rest of the U.S.
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With CME’s arrival last night, Electron Saturation fell into Moderate levels, and it’ll likely stay there until 10/5, when it should rise above its Alert Threshold again.
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Solar Flares are very quiet rn. We’ve got 4 Sun Spots facing Earth, all classified as capable of C Class Solar Flares, but none of those Sun Spots are producing anything above B Class Solar Flares atm, even the one in its Farewell Volley position. NOAA’s not expecting that to change over the next 3 days. With the quiet Sun Spots, Proton Saturation’s staying below its Alert Threshold.
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Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP Averaged 2.6 beginning 10/2 @ 9.00p CDT, Averaged 0.6 beginning 10/3 @ 10.00a CDT
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density 15.8/cm3 10/2 @ 8.30p CDT, <10.00/cm3 beginning 10.47p CDT Solar Wind Speed Peaked 305 km/sec 10/2 @ 8.46p CDT, <300 km/sec beginning 10/3 @ 2.55a CDT . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation Moderate beginning 10/2 @ 6.40p CDT Proton Saturation Normal Connie Howell