10/5 Recap

We’ve got 2 Sun Spots that got upgraded to capable of M- and X-Class Solar Flares today. One of them tossing an M-Class Solar Flare around 2.00p CDT today. There’s no CME being reported with this Solar Flare, so that’s Good News. NOAA’s currently forecasting only a 15% chance of M Class Solar Flares; I expect that’ll increase tomorrow.
.
Solar Wind Speed held steady in the 500 km/sec range today. Most forecasts indicate it’ll continue to do that for the next 3 days before starting to fall into the 400 km/sec range. But, the Coronal Hole that’s spewing the CH HSS we’re currently sitting in has broken up quite a bit, so we maaay see a drop into the 400 km/sec range a day earlier.
.
We had a couple more hours of Geomagnetic Storms last night. All Geomagnetic Storm Watches are expired now. Geomagnetics are supposed to be calm for the next 3 days.
.
Electron Saturation crossed it Alert Threshold today and came pretty close to exceeding >10K pfu. It expect it will cross the >10K pfu line tomorrow and possibly each of the 3 coming days, but what happens with this feature is largely dependent on how much more the Coronal Hole gets immersed in the Sun’s plasma, so we’ll see…
.
Proton Saturation jumped a bit with the M Class Solar Flare, but returned to Normal levels today. What it does over the next 3 days is largely dependent on what happens with the Solar Flares.
.
Solar Flare Conditions
M1.08 Solar Flare 10/5 @ 1.48p CDT from Incoming Sun Spot
.
Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 3.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 10/4 @ 10.00p – midnight CDT
Geomagnetic Storm Watches Expired
.
Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <10.00/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed Variable between 527-594 km/sec All Day . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation >1K pfu beginning 10/5 @ 11.00a CDT and continuing to 7.00p CDT Post
Proton Saturation Moderate
Connie Howell