10/6 Recap

Today was a day of switching Solar energies. Solar Wind Speed dropped into the 400 km/sec range, but Solar Flares picked up with numerous C Class Solar Flares and 2 M Class Solar Flares, one of which lasted about 1 hour. Solar Wind Speed should continue to drop the next 2 days, but the Sun also tossed 2 CMEs that are expected to arrive at Earth on 10/9. These CMEs are expected to arrive at about 500 km/sec velocity, so Solar Wind Speeds will increase on 10/9 in response to that. NOAA’s providing some chances for HP = 5 – 6 Geomagnetic Storms on that day. I’ve provided the probability chart below.
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Electron Saturation climbed above 10K pfu today, and will likely stay above its Alert Threshold until the CMEs arrive. Proton Saturation is currently at Normal levels, but there’s a good chance it’ll rise above its Alert Threshold in response to Solar Flares from Sun Spots that are moving into the Sun-Earth Line over the next few days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
>1.0 hour long M1.4 Solar Flare 10/6 began 12.38a CDT, Peaked 1.10a CDT, Ended 1.51a CDT from Incoming Sun Spot -> 10/9 CME
M1.9 Solar Flare @ 3.05a CDT from Incoming Sun Spot -> 10/9 CME
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.3 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <5.0/cm3 Solar Wind Speed 550 km/sec 10/5 @ 7.00p CDT, ~500 km/sec beginning 11.03p CDT, ~450 km/sec beginning 10/6 @ 9.00a CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 6.00p CDT Solar Wind Speed ~400 km/sec Warning . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation >1K pfu beginning 10/5 @ 11.10a CDT
Electron Saturation >10K pfu beginning 10/6 @ 10.20a CDT
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation >10K pfu Warning and Watch
Connie Howell