10/13 Recap

Today’s expected CME wasn’t strong enough to cause Geomagnetic Storms, and the CH HSS followed far enough behind that they weren’t able to combine forces and cause Geomagnetic Storms. The CME has weakened during the day and the CH HSS is becoming more powerful and raising our Solar Wind Speeds back into the >600 km/sec range. While Geomagnetic Storms often follow the arrival of CH HSSs, and we’ve got 2 more CMEs expected tomorrow, NOAA’s only providing a 5% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America and a 20% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states for the next couple of days. We’ll see how that goes, but we averaged HP = 2.0 today.
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The CMEs tomorrow should keep Electron Saturation below its Alert Threshold until 10/15.
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NOAA’s removed the M Class Solar Flare Watch as the 2 Exiting Sun Spots rotate away from Earth. We’ve got an Incoming Sun Spot that we’ll be watching for the next week, but it’s currently only tossing C Class Solar Flares.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density ~15.0/cm3 10/12 @ 7.00p CDT, ~10.0/cm3 beginning 10/13 @ 12.58a CDT, <6.0/cm3 beginning 2.49p CDT Solar Wind Speed ~510 km/sec 10/12 @ 7.25p CDT, ~480 km/sec beginning 10/13 @ 12.38a CDT, ~500 km/sec beginning 4.33a CDT, Variable between 521-604 km/sec beginning 7.11a CDT, Variable between 572-674 km/sec beginning 2.57p CDT . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation Low - Moderate Proton Saturation Normal Connie Howell