10/20 Recap

The expected Coronal Hole’s HSS didn’t arrive today, and expectations for its arrival have shifted to this evening. NOAA’s saying there’s a 20% chance it’ll cause HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America, and a 25% chance it’ll cause HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states. Current forecasts are indicating that Solar Wind Speeds will exceed 400 km/sec when the CH HSS arrives. This CH HSS’ impacts are supposed to be short-lived this time around. Our Geomagnetics and Solar Wind Speeds are expected to decrease beginning 10/22.
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While the CH HSS didn’t arrive today, the Solar Wind chart indicates a small CME did arrive, likely the 10/16 CME that was expected tomorrow. The CME is only slightly impactful. It raised Solar Wind Speed to 432 km/sec @ 4.23p CDT, and only bumped the HP Index up to HP = 3.0. As of 8.49p CDT this evening, Solar Wind Speed has already dropped below 400 km/sec.
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Solar Flares were calmer today, only reaching C Class levels. There are currently 2 Sun Spots facing Earth that are capable of M Class Solar Flares. One is entering its Farewell Volley position, the second is in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line. We’ll see what they do in the coming week.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.0 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <9.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed ~350 km/sec 10/20 @ 7.00p CDT, ~320 km/sec beginning 9.24p CDT, ~350 km/sec beginning 10/20 @ 7.02a CDT, ~370 km/sec beginning 10.49a CDT, >400 km/sec beginning 3.45p CDT, Peaked 432 km/sec @ 4.23p CDT, <400 km/sec beginning 7.08p CDT Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell