10/19 Recap

Today was really quiet – we didn’t even get to HP = 1.0 for more than 3 hours today! Solar Wind Speed did hover just *under* 400 km/sec most of the day, and we did have 1 M Class Solar Flare early this morning. Geomagnetic Storms are expected overnight this evening when the new Coronal Hole’s High Speed (Solar Wind) Stream arrives, but NOAA’s providing fairly low probabilities for those Geomagnetic Storms – only 15% chance of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America and a 20% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states. University of Reading’s forecasts indicate we’ll exceed 500 km/sec when those winds arrive. Electron Saturation should stay below its Alert Threshold until 10/21.
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The Sun Spot we’ve been monitoring will be in its Farewell Volley position tomorrow, and it’s a good possibility the M Class Solar Flare it tossed today forewarns of more of them in the 4-5 days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.68 Solar Flare 10/18 @ 4.03a CDT from Sun Spot in Sun-Earth Magnetic Line
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <4.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed <400 km/sec 10/17 @ 7.00p CDT, <350 km/sec beginning 10/18 @ 8.57p CDT Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell