6/30 Recap
Well, most of our charts lit up today!
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So, we had 2 noteworthy Solar Flares today – an approximately 1 hour long M5.8 this morning and an approximately 30 minute long X1.1 this afternoon. The X1.1 Solar Flare was from a Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line and it generated a CME which may arrive 7/3-7/4. The fact this Sun Spot is in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line means there’s a good chance this CME will be a direct hit to Earth. We’ll know more tomorrow after NOAA has a chance to evaluate the satellite images.
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The 6/26 CMEs arrived around 6.00a CDT this morning, causing brief HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms until 2.00p CDT this afternoon. We’re still under an HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until about midnight CDT, then our Geomagnetics are expected to calm down. The incoming 6/27 CME isn’t expected to significantly impact our Geomagnetics.
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With today’s CMEs Solar Wind Speed rose in the >400 km/sec range and has held steady around 420 km/sec. That’s not expected to change much tomorrow, but it should drop on 7/2.
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Today’s CMEs also *finally* dropped Electron Saturation back into Moderate levels after 6.00p CDT. Tomorrow’s incoming CME should keep Electron Saturation low for the next 2 days.
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This morning’s Proton Saturation/S1 Solar Radiation Storm Watch was cancelled when today’s X1.1 Solar Flare failed to raise proton levels.
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Solar Flare Conditions
~1 hour long M5.8 Solar Flare Peaked 6/30 @ 7.57a CDT from Exiting Sun Spot
X1.1 Solar Flare @ 3.50p CDT from Sun Spot in Sun-Earth Line -> CME arriving 7/3-7/4
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.3 Average until 6.00a CDT, then 3.6 Average until 7.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 6/30 @ 6.30a-7.00a CDT, noon – 2.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until 6/30 @ midnight CDT
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density < 3.0/cm3 6/29 @ 7.00p CDT, ~15.0/cm3 beginning 6/30 @ 6.02a CDT, <8.0/cm3 beginning 1.13p CDT, Peaked 35.8/cm3 @ 7.59p CDT, <6.0/cm3 beginning 8.16p CDT
Solar Wind Speed ~330 km/sec 6/29 @ 7.00p CDT, ~420 km/sec beginning 6/30 @ 6.08a CDT and continuing to 10.00p CDT Post
Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Warning
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation ~/>1K pfu 6/26 @ 8.40a CDT to 6/30 @ 6.20p CDT
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation Warning Expired
Proton Saturation Watch Cancelled
Connie Howell