7/1 Recap

We had A LOT of Solar Flares today, mainly from a large, powerful Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Line. It appears most of the Solar Flares did *not* toss CMEs with them, which is good news. The Not So Good News – it doesn’t look like this Sun Spot plans to stop yet, and it’ll be about 5 days before we’re fully out of its range… 😕
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Good News – the CME that arrived yesterday only caused very brief Geomagnetic Storms last night. Not So Good News – the incoming X1.1 CME is expected to arrive tomorrow night CDT. While it’s not likely it’ll take most of us up to HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms, there’s a slight 20% chance it’ll keep us in and out of HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms for over 24 hours. Canada and the northern U.S. states have the best 45% chance of reaching HP = 6 (G2) overnight 7/2-7/3 CDT. Everybody should experience calmer Geomagnetics on 7/4.
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Solar Wind Speed’s been pretty stable today hanging out around 400 km/sec. The Solar Wind chart indicates the 6/27 CME arrived 7/1 @ 7.17p CDT, but Solar Wind Speed’s still holding at 400 km/sec. It looks like the X1.1 CME arriving tomorrow night is expected to take our Solar Wind Speeds into the 500 km/sec range and keep us there for a few days.
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Electron Saturation should stay below its Alert Threshold for at least the next 2 days. Proton Saturation’s holding steady at Normal levels, but I doubt it’ll be able to sustain that considering the onslaught of Solar Flares from the Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line.
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Solar Flare Conditions
*See Attached Chart
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 6/30 @ 9.00p-10.00p CDT
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density 11.63/cm3 @ 7.02p CDT, Peaked 36.3/cm3 @ 7.58p CDT, <8.0/cm3 beginning 8.16p CDT, 11.0/cm3 7/1 @ 3.36a CDT, Variable between 2.31-10.8/cm3 beginning 9.38a CDT Solar Wind Speed ~410 km/sec 6/30 @ 7.00p CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 7/1 @ 1.28p CDT, low of 361 km/sec @ 9.56a CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 10.41a CDT and continuing to 8.00p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed ~400 km/sec Warning Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation Moderate Proton Saturation Normal –Connie Howell