8/18 Recap

• We had, and have, a pretty thorough mixing of CH HSS and the 8/14 CME today. Next 3 days liable to be unpleasant due to CME Sideswipes, CH HSS, and likely Electron Saturation levels rising to >1K pfu, but everything should settle down in 4 days, on 8/22.
• CMEs + CH HSS expected to keep our Solar Wind Speeds in the 500 km/sec range until 8/22. It may be 8/25 before we get down to <400 km/sec Solar Wind Speeds.
• 25% chance HP = 5 (G1) middle N. America and 55% chance HP = 6 (G2) northern U.S. states most likely until 8/19 @ 7.00a CDT, after that we shouldn’t exceed HP = 4 for next 3 days. This forecast may change as 8/16 & 8/17 CMEs are integrated into NOAA’s forecast.
• Exiting Sun Spot sporadically tossing only C Class Solar Flares, capable of X Class Solar Flares.
• CMEs may keep Electron Saturation below Alert Threshold for next 3 days, but wagering rise above 1K pfu on 8/21 as CMEs wane and 2 CH HSS’ impact becomes driving force in Solar Winds.

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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 2.0 beginning 8/18 @ 8.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 8/17 @ 11.30p CDT – 8/18 @ 1.00a CDT, 1.30p – 5.00p CDT
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm 8/18 @ 3.00p-4.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until 8/19 @ 7.00a CDT – may be extended
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density ~16.0/cm3 8/17 @ 7.00p CDT, ~ 10.0/cm3 beginning 8/18 @ 5.35a CDT, 16.9/cm3 @ 12.02p CDT, ~7.0/cm3 beginning 2.15p CDT
Solar Wind Speed ~400 km/sec 8/17 @ 7.00p CDT, ~430 km/sec beginning 8/1 @ 8.00a CDT, 463 km/sec @ 10.47a CDT, 547 km/sec @ 11.57a CDT, ~570 km/sec beginning 1.58p CDT, ~590 km/sec beginning 9.23p CDT
Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning
Solar Wind Speed >600 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Low – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell