8/19 Recap

Today our Space Weather was jostled across almost every feature we measure! The CH HSSs have settled in and slightly overwhelmed the 8/14 CME, taking Solar Wind into the 600 km/sec range, though we averaged Solar Wind Speeds in the 500 km/sec range. When the CH HSS gained strength, it briefly caused HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms.
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2 CMEs are arriving before noon CDT tomorrow and there’s a small chance they’ll cause a few more Geomagnetic Storms: 15% chance for HP = 5 (G1) in middle N. America and 40% chance of HP = 6 (G2) in northern U.S. states on 8/20, then periodic HP = 4 should be highest Geomagnetic disturbance for following 2 days.
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2 Coronal Holes that are currently impacting Earth are gaining size, so we’ll have an extended period of CH HSS exposure from them. CH HSSs + 2 CMEs are expected to keep Solar Wind Speed in 500 km/sec range until 8/23.
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An Incoming Sun Spot is making itself known with several C Class Solar Flares and its first M Class Solar Flare. The Exiting Sun Spot we’ve been following generated several C Class Solar Flares during the day – we have 2-3 more days until we’re out its range. The Incoming Sun Spot will be the next one to watch.
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Electron and Proton Saturation stayed below their Alert Thresholds, but with the CH HSS gaining dominance, Electron Saturation crawled up to just below its Alert Threshold today. Depending on the strength of the 2 incoming CMEs, Electron Saturation may hover around it Alert Threshold tomorrow, before beginning to climb over it on 8/21.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.0 Solar Flare 8/19 @ 12.17p CDT from Incoming Sun Spot
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 3.0 Average
HP = 5 (G1) 8/18 @ midnight to 8/19 @ 2.00a CDT
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density ~7.0/cm3 8/18 @ 7.00p CDT, ~5.0/cm3 beginning 8/19 @ 7.28a CDT
Solar Wind Speed 537 km/sec 8/18 @ 7.00p CDT, ~580 km/sec beginning 9.24p CDT, Peaked 615 km/sec @ 11.37p CDT, ~560 km/sec beginning 8/19 @ 12.53a CDT
Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu Watch
Connie Howell