8/28 Recap

All 3 Sun Spots in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line downgraded to capable of B Class Solar Flares, but they’ll be entering their Farewell Volley positions over next 4 days, where they may become more active. In the meantime, we’ve got 3 Incoming B-Class Sun Spots that are actively swapping plasma and energy, so they may start producing C- to M-Class Solar Flares over the next 7-10 days. Proton Saturation finally settled back down into its mid-range Normal levels.

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The Solar Wind chart indicates 2 CMEs surrounding Earth. There’s no sign currently of a CH HSS, but I expect it’s likely in the mix, just overpowered by the CMEs. The first CME took our Solar Wind Speeds from ~250 km/sec to ~300 km/sec beginning 8/28 @ 2.29a CDT. The second, more powerful CME raised our Solar Wind Speed to ~390 km/sec beginning around noon today. The 2nd CME carried enough power to finally dislodge Electron Saturation from its 8 day hold on its Alert Threshold at 1.10p CDT, and Electron Saturation’s currently sitting at Normal – Moderate levels. As far as CMEs go, we’re not done yet. There’s still at least 1 more that’s due any time now, traveling around 500 km/sec, which is where I expect our Solar Winds will sit for the next couple of days based on HUXt forecasts from the University of Reading.

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All these CMEs are causing NOAA to issue an HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch for tomorrow. They’re providing a 40% chance of middle N. America experiencing HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms, and a 25% chance of the northern U.S. states reaching HP = 6 (G2). NOAA’s expecting we’ll be through the Geomagnetic Storms mid-morning CDT tomorrow, and space weather conditions should gradually calm down on 8/30 & 8/31.

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Solar Flare Conditions

B Class Solar Flares

M Class Solar Flare Watch

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Geomagnetic Conditions

HP Averaged 0.3 8/27 @ 7.00p to 8/28 @ 8.00a CDT, HP Averaged 3.3 until 5.00p CDT

HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 8/28 @ 5.00p-6.00p CDT

HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Warning

HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until 8/29 @ 1.00a CDT – will likely be extended

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Solar Wind Conditions

Solar Wind Density <7.0/cm3 8/27 @ 7.00p CDT, <11.0/cm3 beginning 8/28 @ 4.39a CDT, Variable between 7.97-26.2/cm3 beginning 9.01a CDT

Solar Wind Speed ~250 km/sec 8/27 @ 7.00p CDT, ~300 km/sec beginning 8/28 @ 2.29a CDT, 351 km/sec @ 10.28a CDT, Variable between 368-418 km/sec beginning 12.07p CDT

Solar Wind Speed ~400 km/sec Warning

Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Watch

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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions

Electron Saturation ~1K pfu beginning 8/20 @ 11.40a CDT and ending 8/28 @ 1.10p CDT

Proton Saturation Moderate