9/5 recap

Today was bit jostled with an M Class Solar Flare from an Exiting Sun Spot that pushed Proton Saturation above its Alert Threshold for several hours. So, if you felt any unusual symptoms that you couldn’t account for locally, that Proton Saturation measurement might have been the issue. Proton Saturation normally takes several days to drop back down below its Alert Threshold, but fortunately it’s already done that as of 4.40p CDT. Unfortunately, the cluster of four Incoming Sun Spots tossed a few C Class Solar Flares and 3 CMEs today that are expected to arrive overnight 9/7-9/8.
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Solar Wind Speed and the HP Index were both at comfortable levels today. That’s expected to change over the next 2 days. Some forecasts are indicating the CME+CH HSS will overnight tomorrow and the 3 CMEs will arrive overnight 9/7-9/8; other forecasts are expecting everything to arrive overnight 9/7-9/8. There’s a slim 10% chance the CME will cause brief HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America on 9/7, and 25% chance it’ll cause HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states on the same day. Geomagnetic Storms are most likely mid-morning on 9/7 according to NOAA’s current forecast and several forecasts the conflagration of all these events are likely to raise Solar Wind Speeds into the 700 km/sec on 9/7.
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For those sensitive to Electron Saturation it finally started dropping into Moderate levels for several hours today, so you should get a break from that Solar Feature beginning 9/7 when the CMEs arrive. The incoming CH HSS might raise Electron Saturation on 9/9.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.0 Solar Flare 9/5 @ 10.18a CDT from
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.3 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <5.0/cm3 All Day Solar Wind Speed ~345 km/sec All Day . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation ~1K pfu 8/31 @ 4.00a CDT to 9/4 @ 10.50p CDT Post Electron Saturation ~1K pfu 9/5 @ 12.30p CDT to 8.00p CDT Proton Saturation Normal >10 pfu beginning 9/5 @ 11.10a CDT to 4.40p CDT
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu Watch
Proton Saturation >10 pfu Watch
Connie Howell