7/3 Recap

I feel like I should start this post by saying, “Things are changing rapidly tonight.” I’ve literally had to update this post 3x this evening, with the most recent update being at 9.08p CDT. In the interest of getting this info posted – if I imply below that something may happen tonight, changes are good rn that it’s imminent. I’ll try to post a couple updates this evening if I can get the time…
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Solar Flares are calming down as 2 Sun Spots enter their Farewell Volley positions, and only 1 Sun Spot is left in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line. While we’d like to think Sun Spots turning away from Earth means things are going to calm down soon, that’s seldom the case. It’s possible to get Solar Flares, and even CME Sideswipes from Sun Spots for about 3 days after they become difficult to see. So we’re looking at about 5 more days until we’re out of those 3 Sun Spots’ range, plus we’ve got a new Sun Spot coming in on the Sun’s eastern horizon.
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The X1.1 CME arrived around 5.00a CDT this morning, and while it did raise our HP Index from HP = 0.3 to HP = 3.6 (average), it didn’t cause any Geomagnetic Storms until 7/3 @ 8.00p CDT when it finally reached HP = 5 (G1). Everybody’s still anticipating we’ll reach HP = 6 (G2) tonight or tomorrow (30% chance), and HP = 5 (G1) on 7/5 (35% chance) before dropping out of the Geomagnetic Storm ranges on 7/6.
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That CME also took our Solar Wind Speeds in the 590 km/sec range, which is where we’re sitting now, but Solar Wind Speeds are continuing to climb, and it looks like we’ll be above 600 km/sec at least briefly this evening. A couple models are showing Solar Wind Speed will drop below 500 km/sec on 7/6, but tbh, a lot of that depends on how the incoming CMEs and the CH HSS interact, so we’ll see….
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The recent CMEs are keeping Electron Saturation below its Alert Threshold, but Solar Flares have made Proton Saturation Agitated, and Rising. It’s currently just above Moderate levels, so I’m thinking that if Solar Flares continue, it’s likely to cross its Alert Threshold tomorrow or the following day.
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.4 Solar Flare 7/3 @ 8.13a CDT from Exiting Sun Spot
M6.8 Solar Flare @ 1.11p CDT from Exiting Sun Spot
M6.5 Solar Flare @ 1.59p CDT from Sun Spot in Sun-Earth Line
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.6 Average until 7/3 @ 7.00a CDT
HP = 3.6 Average beginning 7.00a CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm 7/3 @ 8.00p-9.00p CDT
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Warning
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch until 7/4 @ 1.00a CDT – may be extended
HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <4.0/cm3 7/2 @ 7.00p CDT, ~8.0/cm3 beginning 7/3 @5/.36a CDT, Variable between 12.0-36.0/cm3 beginning 2.03p CDT and continuing to 9.00p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed ~380 km/sec beginning 7/2 @ 7.05p CDT, ~475 km/sec beginning 7/3 @ 5.06a CDT, ~570 km/sec beginning 2.55p CDT, ~580 km/sec beginning 7.17p CDT, ~590 km/sec beginning 7.40p CDT and continuing to 9.00p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning
Solar Wind Speed >600 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Moderate 7/3 @ 8.40p CDT and Rising
Proton Saturation >Alert Threshold Watch
Connie Howell