8/16 Recap

Today was another quiet day in space weather, but things are expected to change when the CME arrives tomorrow, sometime in the morning CDT. Most forecasts are anticipating it’ll bring Solar Wind Speeds into the 500 km/sec, and it looks like it’ll last the day, and be immediately joined by the next CH HSS on 8/18. NOAA’s giving middle N America a 5% chance of reaching HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms on 8/17 and 8/18, while the northern U.S. states are being given a 20% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storm levels on 8/17, and a 15% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms on 8/18. Everything should calm down again on 8/19.
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We had increased frequency and intensity of Solar Flares, mainly from 2 Sun Spots in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line that gained size and strength since yesterday’s post. These Sun Spots are the most likely to toss an M Class Solar Flare our way in the 5-6 days, so we’ll be monitoring them. The other 4 Sun Spots facing Earth are rated for C Class Solar Flares, but staying quiet.
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Electron and Proton Saturation stayed below their Alert Thresholds today. Electron Saturation will likely continue at this level until 8/20, when the CH HSS should cause it to cross its Alert Threshold. Proton Saturation should stay below its Alert Threshold unless one of the two Sun Spots in the Sun-Earth Line start tossing M Class Solar Flares.
Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <5.0/cm3 Solar Wind Speed ~340 km/sec 8/15 @ 7.00p CDT, ~300 km/sec beginning 8/16 @ 10.30a CDT . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation Low to Moderate Proton Saturation Normal Connie Howell