8/27 Recap
It turned out that we had a calm day today! Solar Flares stayed in the B- to C-Class range, Solar Wind Speed hung out at < 300 km/sec all day, and our HP Index didn’t get above HP = 2.0 – Electron Saturation is the only measure that stayed at slightly annoying levels, continuing to hover around its Alert Threshold.
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Our forecast hasn’t changed though. The Geomagnetic Storms are still expected overnight this evening, along with an increase in Solar Wind Speeds into the 500 km/sec when the CH HSS arrives. However, the Solar Wind chart is indicating a CME might arrive first, based on a slight increase in Solar Wind Density. No matter which arrives first, a Geomagnetic Storm is likely tonight. We are expected to also have another round of Geomagnetic Storms tomorrow night when a couple of potential 3rd CME Sideswipe arrives. The 4th potential CME Sideswipe on 8/31 isn’t expected to do much to our Geomagnetics since the preceding CMEs will have taken a lot of the force out of the CH HSS, but it’ll take several days for our Solar Wind Speeds to drop back to more comfortable levels.
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Electron Saturation is still staying above its Alert Threshold. It should drop when the 1st CMEs arrive. Proton Saturation is slowly, but steadily dropping back to its Normal levels.
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All 3 of the chummy Sun Spots that have kept each other agitated moved into the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line today, causing them to calm down, and it also caused the northernmost of the 3 Sun Spots to be downgraded to capable of C Class Solar Flares. Unfortunately, the center Sun Spot gained the energy the northernmost Sun Spot lost, and the center Sun Spot is not capable of X Class Solar Flares. If these 3 Sun Spots abide by the normal rules of their location in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line, they should only toss C Class Solar Flares tomorrow, but after that we can likely expect M Class Solar Flares for several days as they move into their Farewell Volley positions.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
M Class Solar Flare Wach
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density < 3.0/cm3 8/26 @ 7.00p CDT, <6.0/cm3 beginning 8/27 @ 5.44p CDT Solar Wind Speed ~270 km/sec 8/26 @ 7.00p CDT, ~250 km/sec beginning 11.12p CDT and continuing to 8/27 @ 11.00p CDT Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu beginning 8/20 @ 11.40a CDT and continuing to 8/27 @ 11.00p CDT
Proton Saturation Moderate
Electron Saturation ~1K pfu Warning and Watch