10/2 Recap

Today was quite calm across all measures, except Electron Saturation started hovering around its Alert Threshold this morning after taking a dip into Moderate levels overnight.
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It’s kinda starting to look like today’s expected CME might be a miss, but it could also be that it’s just late arriving. If y’all start feeling the symptoms that arrive when Solar Wind Speeds exceed 400 km/sec, that’ll be why. No Geomagnetic Storms are expected this evening. If the CME does miss Earth, the only things that’ll be different in the Forecast chart are Solar Wind Speeds will stay below 300 km/sec and Electron Saturation will likely hover around its Alert Threshold beginning near noon CDT tomorrow.
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The incoming Coronal Hole’s High Speed Stream (CH HSS) is an Equatorial Coronal Hole that’s lost some shape and gained density over the past few days. The fact that it’s an Equatorial Coronal Hole means the Solar Winds it’s already spewing at Earth will arrive with impact, briefly causing Geomagnetic Storms overnight 10/3-10/4. The fact it’s losing shape and gaining density means the Solar Wind Speeds expected with it may be a big high. We’ll see how that plays out.
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Solar Flares are staying in the B Class range today. We only have 3 Sun Spots currently facing Earth; both are classified for B- to C-Class Solar Flares. The only Sun Spot that regenerated a Solar Flare that was noteworthy was an Exiting Sun Spot, and it’s main contribution today was a B3.3, so it’s not likely we’ll see any Farewell Volley M Class Solar Flares from it.
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Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 0.6 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <5.0/cm3 Solar Wind Speed ~300 km/sec 10/1 @ 7.00p CDT, ~280 km/sec beginning 11.53a CDT . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation ~1K pfu beginning 10/2 @ 9.40a CDT and continuing to 7.00p CDT Post Proton Saturation Normal Connie Howell