8/9 Recap

Things calmed down quite a bit with our Geomagnetics today after yesterday’s periodic Geomagnetic Storming ended around 5.00p CDT last night. Today we averaged HP = 1.0. We should see similar Geomagnetics tomorrow and early 8/11 before the next round of CME plasma and CH HSS arrive mid-afternoon CDT on 8/11. NOAA’s providing small chances of Geomagnetic Storms on 8/11, with slightly greater odds on 8/12 – a 25% chance HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America on 8/12, and a 55% chance of HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states.
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Solar Wind activity picked up today. The current CME took us into the 400 km/sec range with Solar Wind Speed, and Solar Wind Density spent a good portion of time >10.0/cm3, but we’re back below 10.0/cm3 as of 10.0a CDT today. Solar Wind Speed will likely not drop below 400 km/sec over the next 3 days with the 8/8 CME and CH HSS arriving 8/11. Solar Wind Speed will likely stay in the ~400 km/sec range for a few days.
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Our Solar Flare forecast is the lowest I’ve seen in the 3 years I’ve been putting these reports together! Solar Flares are picking up a bit, but we’re still in the C Class range. Almost all the C Class Solar Flares are coming from an Exiting Sun Spot that should be beyond our range in 2 days. We’ve got 2 Sun Spots facing Earth, generating periodic C Class Solar Flares. We currently have no Incoming Sun Spots.
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Electron and Proton Saturation are staying below their Alert Thresholds. I suspect the current CME, and the incoming CME, will keep Electron Saturation at comfortable levels. I also expect the lack of large, active Sun Spots will keep Proton Saturation at comfortable levels for several days.
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Solar Flare Conditions
C Class Solar Flares
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.0 Average
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <10.0/cm3 8/7 @ 7.00p CDT, ~15.0/cm3 beginning 11.23p CDT, <7.0/cm3 beginning 8/9 @ 10.14a CDT Solar Wind Speed 364 km/sec 8/7 @ 7.00p CDT, Variable between 308-385 km/sec beginning 8/9 @ 3.49a CDT, Variable between 417-462 km/sec beginning 11.14a CDT Solar Wind Speed >400 km/sec Warning and Watch
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation Normal – Moderate
Proton Saturation Normal
Connie Howell