7/9 Recapt

Ok folks, this may get a bit messy… NOAA’s providing a 2 day forecast on half of their 3 day report, so I’m leaning on the UK’s MetOffice and various predictive charts to verify info across several sources. Y’all bear with me!
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We had an M Class Solar Flare today from an Incoming Sun Spot that’s losing size and strength. We have a growing Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Line that’s capable of M Class Solar Flares but it’s currently tossing only C Class Solar Flares. The Sun Spot in the Sun-Earth Line will be in its Farewell Volley position in 1-2 days and will likely start tossing occasional M Class Solar Flares for about 3 days after that.
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Our Geomagnetics were calm(ish) today, spending some time at HP = 4 this afternoon. Both NOAA and the UK’s MetOffice anticipate the new, incoming CH HSS will cause periodic HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms tomorrow, but NOAA’s only providing a 5% chance in middle N. America and a 25% chance of HP = 6 (G2) in the northern U.S. states. The UK’s Met Office and a couple of CME/Solar Wind charts indicate a CME will arrive overnight 7/11-7/12, and the UK’s MetOffice anticipates possible HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms when that arrives.
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Both offices state we’re currently sitting in the 1st CH HSS, which the Solar Wind charts agree with beginning about 5.00p CDT this evening, but tbh the Solar Wind charts and NOAA’s new Suprathermal Ions chart indicate we may be have sitting in a CME from 5.00a CDT – 5.00p CDT today. (I mention this for those who might be sensitive to CMEs moreso than CH HSS.) NOAA’s saying we’ve got a new CH HSS arriving overnight 7/10-7/11 and a few charts agree with that. The UK’s Met Office is saying we’ve got a CME Sideswipe due in overnight 7/11-7/12 and a few charts agree with that. So… forecast charts indicate we’ll be sitting in >400 km/sec Solar Wind Speeds tomorrow, and >500 km/sec Solar Wind Speeds beginning evening CDT on 7/11 and continuing into 7/12.
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We’ll see how all this play out!
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Solar Flare Conditions
M1.1 Solar Flare 7/8 @ 9.27p CDT from Incoming Sun Spot
M Class Solar Flare Watch
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Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 3.3 Average
HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storm Watch?
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Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <12.0/cm3 7/8 @ 7.00p CDT, Peaked 19.98/cm3 7/9 @ 5.05a CDT, <11.00/cm3 beginning 5.45a CDT and continuing to 8.30p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed~380 km/sec 7/8 @ 7.00p CDT, ~420 km/sec beginning 7/9 @ 12.55a CDT, ~500 km/sec beginning 10.55a CDT, Peaked 608 km/sec @ 5.25p CDT, 570 km/sec @ 7.40p CDT and continuing to 8.30p CDT Post Solar Wind Speed >500 km/sec Warning
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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions
Electron Saturation >1K pfu 7/9 @ 12.15p CDT to 6.30p CDT
Proton Saturation
Electron Saturation >1K pfu Watch
Connie Howell