7/16 Recap

Today was another day of waiting for a CME to pass, and conditions to finish calming down. Unfortunately, a tiny Coronal Hole developed in the Sun-Earth Line since last night’s post, and it kept our Solar Wind Speeds from dropping as much as they would have. We’re currently sitting on the 400 km/sec line and will likely drop down into the 300 km/sec range overnight tonight. Also, Electron Saturation went a little above its Alert Threshold today, thanks again to the small Coronal Hole.

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Forecast reports expect a continuation of today’s space weather, but a couple forecast models are showing we can expect Solar Wind Speeds to reach 700 km/sec beginning 7/20. After doing a little digging, it looks like 2 Equatorial Coronal Holes are the expected culprits. The Forecast Models show these 2 wide Coronal Holes will keep us at 700 km/sec Solar Wind Speed for at least 4 days. I’m not finding any HP Index forecasts that go to 7/20, but I’m betting we can expect some Geomagnetic Storms when those CH HSSs arrive.

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Solar Flare Conditions

C Class Solar Flares

M Class Solar Flare Watch

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Geomagnetic Conditions

HP = 2.3 Average

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Solar Wind Conditions

Solar Wind Density <8.00/cm3 All Day

Solar Wind Speed ~460 km/sec 7/15 @ 7.00p CDT, ~400 km/sec beginning 7/16 @ 3.43p CDT and continuing to 11.00p CDT Post

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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions

Electron Saturation >1K pfu 7/16 @ 12.20p-7.00p CDT

Proton Saturation Normal

Electron Saturation >1K pfu Watch

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note: the Coronal Hole picture is a revised version of the 1st pic posted.