8/12 Recap

Today was a pretty calm in space weather. We got down below 400 km/sec this afternoon CDT, and everything else was within comfortable levels. We’ll have one more day of these conditions before the next CH HSS arrives mid-evening CDT on 8/14. Most forecasts indicate the new Coronal Hole’s CH HSS will take us into the 400 km/sec again, and NOAA’s providing a 15% chance it’ll briefly cause HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms in middle N. America, and a 45% chance it’ll briefly cause HP = 6 (G2) Geomagnetic Storms in the northern U.S. states. We should be clear of everything except the >400 km/sec Solar Wind Speeds by mid-morning CDT on 8/15.
.
Solar Flares were mainly quiet today, only 1 C Class Solar Flare, but there were several B Class Solar Flares from Incoming Sun Spot 4507 so we’ll keep an eye on its development over the next 4-5 days as it approaches the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line where it might be more impactful. We’re likely beyond the influence of the Exiting Sun Spots at this time, so Solar Flares should be quiet over the next 3-4 days.
.
In the absence of Solar Flares and CH HSSs, Electron and Proton Saturation are currently staying below their Alert Thresholds. We may see a slight increase in Electron Saturation a couple days after the new CH HSS arrives, beginning 8/16.
.
Solar Flare Conditions
B Class Solar Flares
.
Geomagnetic Conditions
HP = 1.6 Average
.
Solar Wind Conditions
Solar Wind Density <7.0/cm3 8/11 @ 7.00p CDT, <5.0/cm3 beginning 8/12 @ 6.33a CDT Solar Wind Speed ~440 km/sec 8/11 @ 7.00p CDT, ~395 km/sec beginning 8/12 @ 2.11p CDT . Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions Electron Saturation Low - Moderate Proton Saturation Normal Connie Howell