9/10 Recap

The 3 expected CMEs arrived yesterday but were only mildly impactful, taking our Solar Wind Speeds from ~400 km/sec to ~450 km/sec, where they’ve held steady through today. No Geomagnetic Storms accompanied these CMEs and they completed their travels over Earth around 7.00p CDT last night, and we’ve been sitting in a CH HSS since then. While NOAA’s not currently forecasting any significant chances for Geomagnetic Storms in the next few days, the UK’s MetOffice is, and tbh, it’s common when a new CH HSS arrives for it to jostle Earth’s Magnetosphere into at least HP = 5 (G1) Geomagnetic Storms briefly, so we’ll see how that plays out. Most forecasts indicate we’ll be staying over 400 km/sec in Solar Wind Speed for each of the coming 3 days.

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Electron Saturation’s been hovering over its Alert Threshold for 2 days now. The CMEs did carry off enough Electrons to give us a brief period where Electron Saturation stayed in Moderate ranges from 9/9 @7.30p CDT to 9/10 @ 7.10a CDT, but the CH HSS has become dominant in our Solar Winds and electrons are counting in the >1K pfu range.

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Solar Flares have mainly been quiet that past 2 days, staying in the C Class range, but a C3.4 from yesterday tossed a CME at Earth, and there were 2 additional CMEs noted today without Solar Flares. They’re all expected to arrive late 9/14 into early 9/15. We’ve currently got 7 Sun Spots rated for C Class Solar Flares facing Earth: 1 in its Farewell Volley position, 2 in the Sun-Earth Magnetic Line and the remaining 4 Incoming.

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Solar Flare Conditions

C Class Solar Flares

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Geomagnetic Conditions

HP = 2.0 Average

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Solar Wind Conditions

Solar Wind Density <4.0/cm3 beginning 9/9 @ 6.59p CDT and continuing to 9/10 @ 8.30p CDT Post

Solar Wind Speed ~450 km/sec beginning 9/9 @ 3.47p CDT and continuing to 9/10 @ 8.30p CDT Post

Solar Wind Speed ~450 km/sec Warning

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Electron and Proton Saturation Conditions

Electron Saturation ~1K pfu 9/8 @ 9.30a CDT and continuing to 9/10 @ 8.30p CDT Post

Proton Saturation Normal

Electron Saturation >1K pfu Warning and Watch